豁眼鹅种鹅产蛋曲线数学模型分析研究

Analysis and Research on Mathematical Model of Laying Curve of Huoyan Breeding Goose

摘要:

为探究豁眼鹅在辽宁地区群体饲养环境下的产蛋规律，本试验测定了3 000只豁眼鹅种鹅全期产蛋性能，分别采用伍德模型（Wood model）、分室模型（McMillan model）和杨宁模型拟合其产蛋率曲线，根据R值和赤池信息准则（AIC）选择最优模型。结果显示，曲线拟合模型F检验均差异显著，可用于豁眼鹅种鹅产蛋率拟合；产蛋率拟合杨宁模型R最高（R =0.874），分室模型次之（R =0.855），伍德模型拟合度最低（R=0.424），且 AIC指数依次为杨宁模型<分室模型<伍德模型。本试验中豁眼鹅群体开产较实际晚，40%以上产蛋率高峰持续时间较短。综上，杨宁模型适用于豁眼鹅种鹅产蛋率拟合，可评估和预测其产蛋规律，生产过程中要根据模型和产蛋曲线特征科学合理地进行饲养管理，以达到生产效益最优化。

Abstract:

This paper explores the egg laying rules of Huoyan geese under the group breeding environment in Liaoning area. In this experiment, the egg production performance of 3000 Huoyan goose breeding geese was measured, and the egg production rate curves were fitted by Wood model, McMillan model and Yang Ning model respectively. We selected the optimal model based on the Rvalue and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results showed that the curve fitting model F test was significantly different, which can be used to fit the laying rate of Huoyan goose breeding geese. The egg production rate fitted the Yangning model with the highest R (R = 0.874), followed by the compartmental model (R = 0.855), and the Wood model had the lowest fitting degree (R = 0.424), and the AIC index was Yangning model < compartmental model < Wood model. In this experiment, the Huoyan geese started laying later than the actual ones, and the peak duration of egg production rate above 40% was shorter. In summary, the Yang Ning model is suitable for fitting the egg production rate of Huoyan goose breeding geese, and can evaluate and predict its egg production regularity. During the production process, feeding management should be carried out scientifically and rationally according to the model and the characteristics of the laying curve, so as to achieve the optimization of production efficiency.